The Women’s European Football Championship will kick off in less than two weeks with the opening match between host nation England and Austria in a sold-out Old Trafford. In previous editions, tipping Germany to win would have been a safe bet. They reigned for 22 years as the champion of Europe until losing to Denmark in the quarter-finals of the previous edition. Will Germany retake their crown? Or will we have another new champion? To give a sense of the possibilities, we’ve put historical data to use and calculated every team’s chances of eventually winning the tournament. Our simulations show that it promises to be a competitive tournament with Sweden and France as front-runners.
Check out our interactive visualization and explore every team’s chances of advancing past the group stage and eventually winning the tournament. We will update the probabilities after each game.
According to our simulations, Sweden and France enter the tournament as the clear favorites with chances of 27 and 24 percent to win the title, respectively. However, that does not imply that Sweden is necessarily the strongest team in the tournament. Actually, our model rates France marginally stronger. Sweden’s slight advantage is due to them facing Italy or Iceland in the quarter-finals, while France is likely to face a difficult test against the reigning European Champions from the Netherlands. In the most likely scenario, France and Sweden will face each other at Wembley for the final. Although, an early duel in the quarter-finals is also possible if one of them does not manage to win their group.
Spain and England are the next most likely teams to win, with a 14 percent chance. The Netherlands are not far behind with a 10 percent chance. According to the bookmakers, these three teams are actually the main favorites. Indeed, Spain has plenty of talented players, among them the 2021 Ballon d’Or winner Alexia Putellas. However, they will have to get past Germany and Denmark in the “group of death”. Moreover, our models are pessimistic about the strength of their attack. Compared to Spain and the Netherlands, England is rated as a weaker team, as they struggled against top competition recently. However, their chances are boosted by playing at home and they should benefit from large home crowds. Finally, the Netherlands broke the stranglehold of German winners by lifting the EURO Championship’s trophy as the host nation in 2017. However, the team is in transition and has gone through a rough patch recently.
| Chance of reaching round | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | Team | 1/8 | 1/4 | Final | Win ▼ |
| 1 |  | 98% | 67% | 45% | 27% |
| 2 |  | 93% | 58% | 40% | 24% |
| 3 |  | 88% | 61% | 29% | 14% |
| 4 |  | 96% | 60% | 29% | 14% |
| 5 |  | 93% | 46% | 25% | 10% |
After that, the field drops off considerably — only Germany (4%), Italy (3%) and Norway (1%) have more than a 1 percent chance of winning — and the 16-team tournament begins to look more like a 5-team tournament. With chances above 88 percent, each of the five aforementioned teams should thus be able to breeze through their group and things will only get really exciting in the knockout phase. Yet, the group games between Germany vs Spain and the Netherlands vs Sweden should already give us clues to the relative strength of some teams.
How our predictions work
Technically speaking, our system is two rating systems rolled into one: one based on a team’s win-draw-loss results, and one based on a team’s goals scored and conceded. The former is a traditional Elo rating, the latter assigns both offensive and defensive ratings to teams. These offensive and defensive ratings are meant to reflect how many goals a team would score and allow if it played an average international team. Although offense and defense aren’t easy to separate in a fluid sport such as soccer, there are some useful reasons to handle things in this way. First, an important factor in soccer games is the playing style of both teams and the balance between offense and defense. Besides the relative strength of both teams, this difference in playing style might be an important factor in deciding the game’s final outcome. For example, a game between two teams known to rely on a very strong defense might have a higher probability of ending up in a draw than a game between two teams that are known to play very offensively. Second, defensive ratings tend to have a little more predictive power than offensive ratings in games against elite competition, which will be the case for most key matches that will be played in the EURO’s. Both ratings are weighted for the recentness of the game, the importance of the competition and the strength of the opponent.
Given the ratings of two teams, we use a diagonal inflated bivariate Poisson regression model to estimate the distribution of possible outcomes between two teams. The fancy model is necessary because of the complex set of tiebreakers used to determine which teams will advance to the knockout stage in case of equal points. Crucially, goals scored and goals allowed are used so knowing the chance of a 1-0 win compared to a 2-0 win is important.
Based on the model estimates for single matches, Monte-Carlo simulations are then used to estimate probabilities for reaching the different stages in the tournament for all teams.
The main competitors
In the remainder of this post, we take a closer look at each of the main competitors, breaking down their chances advancing from the group stage to the knockout rounds.
🇸🇪 Sweden (27%)
Last year the Swedes lost the Olympic finals against Canada with a penalty shootout, after beating the USA in the semi-finals. This year the team won the Algarve Cup with strong teams participating such as Italy, Portugal, Norway and Denmark. Their team is amongst the oldest in the tournament, and includes experienced players such as Hedvig Lindahl (187 caps), Caroline Seger (229 caps), Kosovare Asllani (160 caps) and Sofia Jakobsson (143 caps), as well as players in their primes such as Magdalena Eriksson (28, Chelsea), Stina Blackstenius (26, Arsenal) and Fridolina Rolfö (28, Barcelona). Will the absence of any young talent break them up in this tournament?
Road to the final
Sweden has a 98% to advance from their group. The most-likely scenario will be a quarter-final against either Italy or Iceland, neither of which are among the tournament’s strongest teams on paper. In the next round, England is the most likely opponent with a victory likely putting them against France in the final.
🇫🇷 France (24%)
The French always have had great players in their squad. Still, they have yet to reach a semi-final in a World Cup, Olympic games or Women’s Euro. This year they have shown their power by winning the Tournoi de France and beating strong opponents like Brazil and the Netherlands. Will they be able to finally reach a semi-final, and maybe even more, this year?
Their squad contains some great players like captain Wendie Renard (31, Lyon), Europe’s transfer target Marie-Antoinette Katoto (23, PSG) and Kadidiatou Diani (27, PSG). Amandine Henry was left out of the squad and might be missed in the midfield. Three very talented players to look out for are Selma Bacha (21, Lyon), Sandy Baltimore (22, PSG) and Melvine Malard (21, Lyon).
Road to the final
France has a 93% chance to survive the group stage. The most-likely scenario will be a quarter-final against the Netherlands. Spain is the most likely opponent in the semis, followed by a final against Sweden.
🇪🇸 Spain (14%)
Spain is on a long unbeaten streak since their 2020 SheBelieves Cup loss against the United States. Can they keep their momentum during the Euro’s?
Their squad contains many players from Champions League finalists Barcelona, including Ballon D’Or winner Alexia Putellas, centre-back duo Irene Paredes and María Pilar León, wide playmaker Mariona Caldentey and very talented Clàudia Pina. But their squad (not final yet) is not just Barcelona 2.0 and includes young talents like Salma Paralluelo (18, Villarreal), Athenea del Castillo (21, Real Madrid) and Nerea Eizagirre (22, Real Sociedad). A big loss for Spain is all-time top scorer Jennifer Hermoso missing the tournament due to an injury.
Road to the final
Spain is arguably in the group of death: facing Germany, Denmark and Finland in the group stage will be daunting. However, their strong recent results means our model gives them a 88% chance of reaching the next round. Spain is the most-likely group winner (61%) and will therefore most-likely face Group A’s number 2 in the quarter-finals, which is expected to be Norway. In the semi-finals France will be the most-likely opponent, followed by a final against Sweden.
🏴 England (14%)
In 2021 Sarina Wiegman took over the team from Phil Neville. Wiegman won the last Euro’s in 2017 with the Dutch team. Will she be able to win the title again with the host team?
The English squad is an intriguing combination of more experienced players in their prime and young talented players. The established players include Lucy Bronze (30, just transferred to Barcelona), Millie Bright (28, Chelsea), Leah Williamson (25, Arsenal) and all-time top scorer Ellen White (33, Manchester City). Steph Houghton, captain of the team until recently, was left out of the squad by Sarina Wiegman. The youngster we expect most of is 21-year-old winger Lauren Hemp. She showed the highest VAEP ratings amongst all wingers in the recent WSL season.
Road to the final
England is expected to have a rather easy group stage, in which Norway is their toughest opponent. Passing through to the quarter-finals as group winner we see them facing Germany, followed by a semi-final against favorites Sweden and a final against the French. Our predictions account for England’s home advantage giving them a 14% probability of winning the Euro’s at Wembley on the 31st of July.
🇳🇱 the Netherlands (10%)
Reigning champions the Netherlands have had a transformation since they won the Euro’s in 2017. The architect of their previous successes, coach Sarina Wiegman left the team and Mark Parsons was appointed as her successor. The new head coach left experienced players like Shanice van de Sanden and Kika van Es out of the squad, opting for young talents like Esmee Brugts (18, PSV), Kerstin Casparij (21, FC Twente) and Marisa Olislagers (21, FC Twente). Another new addition to the team is Olympique Lyon’s midfielder Damaris Egurrola, eligible to play for three different countries through birth and descent, who chose to play for the Dutch over Spain and the USA.
The Dutch are strong in their attack with top scorer Vivianne Miedema (25, Arsenal), Lieke Martens (29, just moved to PSG), Danielle van de Donk (30, Olympique Lyon) and Jill Roord (25, Wolfsburg). Roord had a great season at Wolfsburg, whereas Martens and Van de Donk recently returned from long injuries. Will they be in form in time to shine at the Euros?
Road to the final
The Dutch are very likely to finish second in their group. While stronger than Switzerland and Portugal, they will most-likely lose against Sweden. Group D winner France will then await them in the quarter-finals, followed by a semi-final against Spain and a final against Sweden.
🇩🇪 Germany (4%)
The Germans won 8 of the 12 Women’s EURO tournaments and are historically the best performing European team also having won two world cup titles and an Olympic gold medal in 2016. However, our model only gives them a 4% chance of winning the Euro’s this summer. This is partly due to their recent losses against Serbia (World Cup qualification match), Canada (Arnold Clark Cup) and England (Arnold Clark Cup). Another reason is their tough group stage in which they will face favorites Spain, Norway (with great players like Ada Hegerberg and Caroline Graham Hansen) and outsider Finland.
Although the Germans are no longer the reigning champions they still have a very strong squad. They will miss star Dzsenifer Marozsán due to an injury, but have upcoming talents like Jule Brand (19, moves to VfL Wolfsburg), Klara Buhl (Bayern Munich) and Lena Oberdorf (VfL Wolfsburg). Add experienced players like Alexandra Popp (31, Wolfsburg) and Sara Däbritz (27, moves to Olympique Lyon) to that and you have a balanced squad.
Road to the final
The strength of their group means Germany have a 69% chance of reaching the quarter-finals. However, they will most likely finish 2nd in the group, setting up a likely match against the host England in the quarter-finals. Next up will be Sweden in the semi-finals and where a final against France is the most likely scenario. The Germans probably were most unlucky with the tournament draw, giving them a tough road to the final.
Outsiders
Outsiders for the title are Italy, Norway, Denmark and Iceland. Italy and Iceland will most likely fight with Belgium for the second spot in Group D after favorite France. Italy, Norway and Iceland all finished in last place in the group stage in the 2017 Euro’s.
Italy recently showed some good results beating Denmark and Norway earlier this year. Will they be able to surprise us this Summer?
Iceland will rely on promising talent Sveindís Jane Jónsdóttir who plays for German champions VfL Wolfsburg. Will she be able to guide her team to a successful tournament?
Ballon d’Or 2018 winner Ada Hegerberg returned to the national squad of Norway in March 2022. She had refused to play for the national team since 2017 due to the way the Norwegian FA (NFF) treated women’s football. She returned to the national team scoring a hat-trick against Kosovo alongside Barcelona’s forward Caroline Graham Hansen. Two of the world’s best strikers in one team, would that lead to success this Summer?
2017 finalists Denmark are given a small chance of winning the 2022 version. This is mainly due to them facing Germany and Spain in the group stage. However, if they manage to survive this group will they be able to reach the final again?
