The Women’s World Cup held in Australia and New Zealand will kick off in 10 days. The USA won the last two World Cups but are no longer unbeatable. Will they be able to win their fifth World Cup or will Europe break their drought of not having won since Germany’s victory in 2007? European Champions England, runner-up Germany, reborn France, tiki-taka Spain, and 2019 runner-ups The Netherlands are all strong contenders. And what can we expect from the hosts Australia and New Zealand? We have used historical data to simulate the tournament, and calculate every team’s chance of winning and their most-likely route to the final.
Check out our interactive visualization and explore every team’s chances of advancing past the group stage and eventually winning the tournament. We will update the probabilities after each game.
As is typical, this is shaping up to be a battle between the US and teams from Europe. One big story at this World Cup will be the players that are absent, with a number of stars from top contenders missing out due to injury. This may add a bit of unpredictability to the tournament. Additionally, this will also be the first World Cup to feature 32 teams (compared to the 24 teams during the last two World Cups), which adds a lot of new talent into the mix.
| Chance of reaching round | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | Team | 1/8 | 1/4 | Final | Win ▼ |
| 1 |  | 80% | 60% | 42% | 25% |
| 2 |  | 79% | 49% | 34% | 21% |
| 3 |  | 65% | 36% | 23% | 14% |
| 4 |  | 88% | 46% | 24% | 11% |
| 5 |  | 69% | 42% | 20% | 10% |
| 6 |  | 53% | 30% | 12% | 5% |
According to our simulations, six teams have a chance of at least 5% winning the World Cup. At the top of this list are the United States and England with a 25 and 21 percent chance of claiming the title. These teams will likely have to battle each other in the finals to determine whether the current World Champion USA or the reigning European Champion England will emerge victorious.
Germany and Spain are next in line with respective chances of 14 and 11 percent to win the tournament. The quarter-finals of the World Cup are likely to witness a rematch of last summer’s Women’s Euros final with a face-off between England and Germany. Unfortunately for Germany, our predictions indicate that they will once again fall short in this encounter.
Completing the list of the tournament’s favorites are France and The Netherlands with chances of 10 and 5 percent respectively. Although France seems to be in great shape after reaching the semi-finals during the last Women’s Euros, they will likely face a stronger opponent in the form of England in the semi-finals.
With 93%, host Australia is expected to have a good chance to survive the group stage, but are expected to be knocked out in the quarter-finals by France. Meanwhile, co-host New Zealand is not favored to advance beyond the group stage. Some other teams that might surprise us are Italy, Korea Republic and Colombia.
How our predictions work
We simulated the tournament by estimating a team’s strength based on their historical performances. A team’s strength is measured by its offensive and defensive track record, with recent results and good performances against strong teams weighted more heavily. Using these team strengths we estimate the probabilities that a given match ends in a home win, loss or away win. Given these probabilities for single matches, Monte-Carlo simulations are then used to estimate probabilities for reaching the different stages in the tournament for all teams. See our recent blog post for a more in-depth explanation on our predictions.
The main competitors
We take a closer look at each of the main competitors, breaking down their chances of advancing from the group stage to the knockout rounds.
🇺🇸 United States (25%)
The US enters this tournament as one of the clear favorites, even though they have gone through a generational shift with many key players from the 2015 and 2019 title-winning teams retiring. Moreover, they are suffering from key injuries to star attackers Mallory Swanson and Catarina Macario as well as defensive anchor Becky Sauerbrunn. Thus, their depth will be tested with several players with less international experience in the squad. They face a tricky second group match against the Netherlands who they beat in the 2019 World Cup final and the 2021 Olympics quarter-finals.
Road to the final
As likely group winners, they are predicted to face Italy in the round of 16. In the quarter-finals, they are tipped to face Japan. In the semi-finals, they would likely face Spain, who they lost to last fall. England, Germany or France would likely be awaiting if they reach the final.
🏴 England (21%)
England had a great 2022 winning the Euros at home, qualifying for the World Cup and remaining unbeaten for the calendar year. Their most recent results show though that the English are beatable. After winning the Finalissima on penalties (1-1 in regular time) from Brazil, their unbeaten streak under coach Sarina Wiegman (30 matches) was recently ended by Australia (0-2). Euros’ Player of the Tournament Beth Mead and captain Leah Williamson will miss the World Cup due to ACL injuries. The English still have a strong team with the likes of WSL-topscorer and player of the season Rachel Daly, Champions League winners Kiera Walsh and Lucy Bronze, FIFA Women’s Goalkeeper of 2022 Mary Earps, and talented winger Lauren James. In the 2019 World Cup they lost the semi-finals against the winner US in a nerve-wrecking game. A revanche against the US would only be possible if both were to reach the final.
Road to the final
England faces outsider Denmark, Asian Champions China and debutant Haiti in the group. They are most likely (87%) to win the group, and will then likely face Canada in the round of 16. Next up would be a replay of last summer’s Women’s Euros final with a quarter-final against Germany, followed by a semi-final against France and a final against Spain or the US.
🇩🇪 Germany (14%)
After being the runner-up in the last Women’s Euro, Germany might just be even more set than other teams on taking home the World Cup title. The current squad includes a good mix of young and experienced players. Among the youngsters is one of the best defensive midfielders in the world, Lena Oberdorf, who was recently named the Young Player of the Tournament at Women’s Euro 2022. She is definitely one of the players to look out for during the World Cup. With Jule Brand and Klara Bühl, the German squad also has some fresh attacking power on the wings. Unfortunately, Germany will also be missing some of their star players due to injuries (Giulia Gwinn, Linda Dallmann).
Road to the final
Out of all the group stage competitors, Germany has the highest chance of winning their group (91%). Once this “easy part” is over, they will most likely face Brazil in the Round of 16. This will certainly not be an easy task, but our predictions show that the German Frauen will persevere and play the next match-up against England in the quarter-finals.
🇪🇸 Spain (11%)
Spain arguably has a big pool of talent. Unfortunately, due to issues with the federation, players like Champions League winners Mapi Leon, Patri Guijarro and Claudia Pina, will not play in this World Cup. What remains is a strong team with a lot of individual quality with players like Jennifer Hermoso, Aitana Bonmati and Alexia Putellas. Despite the high level of individual quality, they have not been very successful in recent tournaments. In the 2019 World Cup they were eliminated in the round of 16 by the United States and in the 2022 Euros England defeated them in the quarter-finals. Will they be able to show their qualities in this World Cup?
Road to the final
Spain and Japan are expected to top Group C leaving Zambia and Costa Rica behind. If Spain finishes first (69%) they will most likely face Switzerland (33%) or New Zealand (23%) in the round of 16. Next, Sweden will await them in the quarter-finals, followed by a semi-final against the USA.
🇫🇷 France (10%)
Will this be the year France finally reaches the semi-final (or even more) in a World Cup? They just might! The team and coaching staff have changed since last summer’s Women’s Euros. Tensions between players and the previous coach, Corinne Diacre, ultimately resulted in her departure, paving the way for her replacement, Hervé Renard, the Africa Cup of Nations winner. Luckily for France, some players who refused to play for Diacre have returned to the team, including star players such as their top-defender and captain Wendie Renard, talented forward Kadidiatou Diani, and striker Eugenie Le Sommer (returning after a break of two years). Unfortunately, they will miss attackers Marie-Antoinette Katoto and Delphine Cascarino due to knee injuries. Even their ex-captain Amandine Henry was set to rejoin the team after a break of two years, but will miss out due to a last-minute calf injury. However, in general, France still seems to have a strong and talented team headed by a coach who is set on winning.
Road to the final
France are the top favorite in their group with a 63% chance of winning the group phase, followed by most-likely runner-up Brazil. England awaits them as the most likely opponent in the semi-finals. According to our simulations, it will be most likely be France’s last game as European Champion England is predicted to win this match-up.
🇳🇱 Netherlands (5%)
The 2019 World Cup runner-ups were disappointing during the 2022 Euros. With a new head coach Andries Jonker and a new formation (5-3-2), the team qualified for the World Cup and showed their qualities in recent matches. The team is a mix of experienced players like Lieke Martens, Danielle van de Donk, Dominique Janssen and Jackie Groenen, and younger players like wing backs Esmee Brugts and Victoria Pelova (who play more upfront at their clubs), goalie Daphne van Domselaar and defensive midfielder Damaris Egurrola. Like other countries, the Dutch will also miss one of their star players due to an ACL injury. All-time Dutch topscorer Vivianne Miedema got injured in December and was not fit in time.
Road to the final
The Dutch will face the US in the group stage, which they might face again if they were to reach the semi-finals. In the group stage they will also face debutants - but not to be underestimated - Portugal and Vietnam. They are most likely (59%) to finish second in their group, and will then face Sweden in the round of 16. They will most likely lose this match, but in case they make it through and manage to win against Spain in the quarter-finals. The USA is the most likely opponent in the semi-finals after which England will await them in the final.
