Coronavirus has pushed Euro 2020 back a year, but the opening match on June 11 is now creeping ever closer. Using a unique format to celebrate the tournament’s 60th birthday, 24 of Europe’s finest national teams will compete across the continent in 11 cities. So, who are the favorites and dark-horses heading into Euro 2020? We performed a statistical simulation to find out. Belgium leads the pack, followed by France and Spain.
Check out our interactive visualization and explore every team’s chances. We will update the probabilities after each game. We’ve also written a blog post in Dutch and French which focuses on Belgium.
According to our forecasting model, Belgium is the tournament’s favorite with a 29% chance of winning. With three of their best players — Eden Hazard, Kevin De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku — at the tail end of their prime and an aging defense, this feels like the last chance for the “Golden Generation” to claim a trophy. With Denmark, Russia and Finland, Belgium’s group is fairly straightforward, and shouldn’t pose too many problems. If they manage to win their group, Belgium will face a third-placed team, providing an easy route to the quarter-finals. From this stage the competition will stiffen and a number of teams will have a chance to win the tournament, but France and Spain (both 14%) are the two other main favorites, followed by Italy and Portugal (both 9%). Denmark might be the tournament’s dark horse with a 7% chance. While England is tipped to win by most bookmakers, our model only gives them a 6% chance.
| Chance of reaching round | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | Team | 1/16 | 1/8 | 1/4 | Final | Win ▼ |
| 1 |  | 94% | 74% | 58% | 41% | 29% |
| 2 |  | 88% | 69% | 44% | 29% | 14% |
| 3 |  | 80% | 58% | 42% | 23% | 14% |
| 4 |  | 86% | 61% | 30% | 17% | 9% |
| 5 |  | 74% | 51% | 33% | 17% | 9% |
| 6 |  | 84% | 50% | 31% | 16% | 7% |
| 7 |  | 89% | 56% | 26% | 15% | 6% |
Due to a lack of competitive games in the past three years, our model might be a bit too optimistic about Belgium’s chances in relation to teams such as France and England. Both Les Bleus and The Three Lions will have a more mature and experienced squad than the ones that respectively won the World Cup and placed fourth back in 2018. In contrast, Belgium has an aging team, especially in the back with Vermaelen (35), Vertonghen (34) and Alderweireld (32) all passed thirty. In addition, Martínez’ squad lacks the depth that France and England have, which might play a role later in the tournament. However, in our model’s defence, none of the other contenders can match Belgium’s track record in the run-up to the tournament. Roberto Martínez’ side completed a flawless qualification campaign with 30 points out of 30, 40 goals scored, and only three conceded. The heavy defeat in the Nations League against Switzerland and a recent draw against the Czech Republic in the World Cup qualifiers served as the only wake-up calls.
| Statistics since World Cup | Team ratings | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | W-D-L | GF-GA | ELO | Off. | Def. |
| 20-1-2 | 77-17 | 2244 | 2.19 | -0.08 |
| 15-4-2 | 45-16 | 2218 | 1.67 | -0.16 |
| 15-5-3 | 62-18 | 2168 | 1.90 | -0.07 |
| 15-3-5 | 60-19 | 2101 | 1.77 | -0.07 |
| 17-5-1 | 52-8 | 2128 | 1.72 | -0.02 |
W: wins; D: draws; L: losses; GF: goals for; GA: goals against
Friendlies are ignored
These results have propelled Belgium to the top of both the FIFA World Ranking and our own ranking system. Technically speaking, our system is two rating systems rolled into one: one based on a team’s win-draw-loss results, and one based on a team’s goals scored and conceded. The former is a traditional Elo rating, the latter assigns both offensive and defensive ratings to teams. These offensive and defensive ratings are meant to reflect how many goals a team would score and allow if it played an average international team. Although offense and defense aren’t easy to separate in a fluid sport such as soccer, there are some useful reasons to handle things in this way. First, an important factor in soccer games is the playing style of both teams and the balance between offense and defense. Besides the relative strength of both teams, this difference in playing style might be an important factor in deciding the game’s final outcome. For example, a game between two teams known to rely on a very strong defense might have a higher probability of ending up in a draw than a game between two teams that are known to play very offensively. Second, defensive ratings tend to have a little more predictive power than offensive ratings in games against elite competition, which will be the case for most key matches that will be played in EURO 2020. Both ratings are weighted for the recentness of the game, the importance of the competition and the strength of the opponent.
Usually the Elo, offensive and defensive ratings are strongly correlated with one another. But there are some minor exceptions. Italy, for example, ranks fourth in our predictions thanks to their outstanding defensive ratings. They conceded only eight goals in their last 23 competitive games. Far less than any other team. Also, France has the second-highest Elo rating but its offensive and defensive ratings are far below the ones of the other top contenders due to several small-margin victories against weaker countries.
Given the ratings of two teams, we use a diagonal inflated bivariate Poisson regression model to estimate the distribution of possible outcomes between two teams. The fancy model is necessary because of the complex set of tiebreakers used to determine which third place teams will advance to the knockout stage. Crucially, goals scored and goals allowed are used so knowing the chance of a 1-0 win compared to a 2-0 win is important.
Based on the model estimates for single matches, Monte-Carlo simulations are used to estimate probabilities for reaching the different stages in the tournament for all teams. The figure below illustrates the most likely tournament bracket.
In the remainder of this post, we take a closer look at each group, breaking down the chances of each team advancing from the group stage to the knockout rounds and where each team ranks.
Group A: Turkey - Switzerland - Italy - Wales
| Team Rating | Position in group | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | Team | ELO | Off. | Def. | Pos 1 | Pos 2 | Pos 3 | Pos 4 | Next round ▼ |
| 1 | | 2128 | 1.72 | -0.02 | 48% | 27% | 16% | 9% | 86% |
| 2 |  | 1983 | 1.52 | -0.38 | 18% | 26% | 28% | 29% | 69% |
| 3 |  | 1979 | 1.28 | -0.26 | 20% | 25% | 27% | 28% | 68% |
| 4 |  | 1938 | 1.33 | -0.65 | 14% | 23% | 29% | 34% | 58% |
Group A is one of the most unpredictable groups: Italy is highly likely to advance (86%), but Switzerland, Wales and Turkey (69%, 68%, and 58% chance of advancing, respectively) are well matched and will have to settle amongst each other who can advance to the knockout phase. The runner-up would then have a favourable round of 16 game, probably against Denmark.
Switzerland has a marginal advantage over Wales, but the Welsh will enter the tournament with confidence after their near-fairy-tale story at EURO 2016, where they lost to eventual tournament winners Portugal 2-0, after beating Belgium in the quarter-finals in iconic fashion. Gareth Bale, Aaron Ramsey, Joe Allen and Ben Davies were all influential players from that tournament who remain in the picture.
Turkey will most likely finish fourth, although the team is hard to rate. They have shown that they can compete with Europe’s elite, but they are prone to fail against weaker competition. They remained unbeaten against France in the EURO qualifications, won against The Netherlands in the World Cup qualifications and tied against Germany and Croatia in recent friendlies. However, they also could not stand out against teams that missed the EURO’s such as Latvia, Iceland, Bosnia Herzegovina and Serbia.
Group B: Denmark - Finland - Belgium - Russia
| Team Rating | Position in group | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | Team | ELO | Off. | Def. | Pos 1 | Pos 2 | Pos 3 | Pos 4 | Next round ▼ |
| 1 | | 2245 | 2.19 | -0.08 | 59% | 28% | 10% | 3% | 94% |
| 2 | | 2093 | 1.73 | -0.10 | 31% | 42% | 19% | 8% | 84% |
| 3 |  | 1834 | 1.32 | -0.72 | 5% | 15% | 37% | 43% | 54% |
| 4 |  | 1802 | 1.25 | -0.63 | 4% | 15% | 35% | 46% | 48% |
Belgium is the tournament’s favourite and almost a surefire bet to advance from group B (94%). Denmark, Russia and Finland shouldn’t provide them with too many problems if we can rely on the results in the run up to the tournament in which Belgium has beaten both Russia and Denmark twice already. Russia was in Belgium’s qualification group. In Brussels, Belgium won 3-1, the away game in Saint-Petersburg ended 1-4. Likewise, Denmark was beaten twice with a clear difference in the Nations League.
Russia will be hoping to continue their upward trajectory following their impressive display at their home World Cup in 2018, where they were knocked out of the tournament by the eventual runners-up, Croatia, after losing on penalties following a 2-2 draw in the quarter finals. Though Golovin, Dzyuba and Fernandes will return from this World Cup side, the team has lost some important players with Akinfeev and Samedov. They have a 54% chance of advancing.
If we had to bet on a dark horse for the EURO’s, it would be Denmark. With Eriksen as their most important player the Danes are a very disciplined team that is hard to beat. In their 40 most recent games, they lost against only two teams: Belgium and Croatia (after penalties in the round of 16 at the World Cup). They have the home advantage in their three group matches and if they manage to finish second (the most likely scenario with a probability of 42%), they have a favourable path to the semi finals over (most likely) Switzerland and Italy.
Finland makes their debut in a major tournament. They are the weakest team in the group, but the gap with Russia should be bridgeable according to our model. Since Group B will likely feature one of the best thirds, qualifying for the knockout rounds (48% chance) is realistic for them and would be a great success.
Group C: The Netherlands - Ukraine - Austria - North Macedonia
| Team Rating | Position in group | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | Team | ELO | Off. | Def. | Pos 1 | Pos 2 | Pos 3 | Pos 4 | Next round ▼ |
| 1 |  | 2039 | 1.65 | -0.25 | 51% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 85% |
| 2 |  | 1950 | 1.32 | -0.54 | 28% | 33% | 24% | 15% | 75% |
| 3 |  | 1857 | 1.22 | -0.76 | 16% | 24% | 32% | 28% | 65% |
| 4 |  | 1730 | 1.07 | -1.14 | 6% | 15% | 29% | 51% | 46% |
Group C is the weakest group in the tournament with an average Elo rating of 1893.25. Despite a long and rich history, the Netherlands went through a difficult period, missing out on the 2018 World Cup in Russia. But the Dutch have been resurgent recently, finishing as runners-up to Portugal in the Nations League, while qualifying for the European Championship with just one defeat from eight games. It’s fair to say the caliber of De Boer’s squad doesn’t match previous Oranje but as things stand, they have an 85% chance of making it to the knockout phase.
Ukraine has a 75% chance to follow in the footsteps of the Dutch. Oleksandr Zinchenko is their most well-known player in a team that is mainly composed out of players from Shakhtar Donetsk and Dynamo Kyiv. People following the Belgian league might also known Yaremchuck (Gent), Malinovskyi (ex-Genk) and Mykhaylichenko (Anderlecht). However, their head coach is more famous than any player. Under Shevchenko, Ukraine earned a place at Euro 2020 after the best qualifying campaign in their history.
Behind The Netherlands and Ukraine, Austria has a reasonable chance of 65% to make it past the group stages for the first time in their history. Therefore, they’ll have to win against North Macedonia, and maybe gather a point against The Netherlands or Ukraine. North-Macedonia appears in their first major tournament and is set to be knocked out in the group phase.
Group D: England - Croatia - Scotland - Czech Republic
| Team Rating | Position in group | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | Team | ELO | Off. | Def. | Pos 1 | Pos 2 | Pos 3 | Pos 4 | Next round ▼ |
| 1 | | 2101 | 1.77 | -0.07 | 60% | 26% | 11% | 4% | 89% |
| 2 |  | 1912 | 1.48 | -0.51 | 23% | 34% | 25% | 18% | 70% |
| 3 |  | 1851 | 1.17 | -0.71 | 11% | 25% | 35% | 30% | 64% |
| 4 |  | 1747 | 1.01 | -0.89 | 6% | 16% | 29% | 49% | 45% |
England have an exciting, young team and the hope will be that they will go one better than their semi-final appearance at the World Cup in 2018. With Croatia, Scotland and the Czech Republic, England has a fairly easy draw in the second weakest group. Therefore, it would be a major upset if England failed to advance to the knockout stage — our model gives the team a 89% chance of doing so, the second-highest total in the field after Belgium. However, like the 2018 World Cup, England topping the group leaves a harder knockout route than finishing second. Winning their group means that it could be over in the round of 16, where France, Portugal or Germany awaits.
The most difficult group opposition comes in the first game against Croatia. The Croatian squad remains relatively unchanged since the World Cup, which should offer a glimmer of hope, but they have looked far from convincing in recent months, losing six of their last eleven games. Still, with a chance of 70%, advancing to the knockout stage should be achievable. Another final seems unlikely though (only 2% chance). The Czech Republic and Scotland are expected to battle for third place. On paper, Scotland is the weakest team with an Elo rating of 1746, but they managed to beat Czechia twice recently in the Nations League.
Group E: Spain - Sweden - Poland - Slovakia
| Team Rating | Position in group | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | Team | ELO | Off. | Def. | Pos 1 | Pos 2 | Pos 3 | Pos 4 | Next round ▼ |
| 1 | | 2169 | 1.90 | -0.07 | 61% | 24% | 11% | 3% | 88% |
| 2 |  | 1915 | 1.39 | -0.42 | 16% | 29% | 33% | 23% | 64% |
| 3 |  | 1948 | 1.39 | -0.36 | 19% | 32% | 29% | 19% | 64% |
| 4 |  | 1756 | 1.03 | -0.95 | 4% | 14% | 27% | 55% | 39% |
Spain won the competition in 2008 and 2012, becoming the first side to retain the title in the process, and will be aiming to make up for a disappointing showing at the 2018 World Cup. With an unbeaten streak in their qualifying, they seem to be back on track. In the Nations League they overpowered Croatia and Germany with 6-0 victories. La Roja should be able to advance as the group winner (they have a 61% chance to do so), which gives them a favourable path to the final over Russia, England and The Netherlands.
However, they meet some tricky opposition in Sweden and Poland. Luis Enrique will know the Swedish team fairly well after having been part of the same qualifying group. La Roja took five more points than Sweden, but needed an injury-time strike in the away game to avoid a loss. The Swedes rely on a strong team spirit and Emil Forsberg, the main creative force.
Robert Lewandowski is undoubtedly the star of the Polish team. The 31-year old is prolific domestically, however he notched just two goals for his country during three major tournaments. With Lewandowski, Milik and Piatek, Poland have plenty of firepower with three top strikers to choose from, but they might lack the midfield creativity to create chances for the frontmen.
Although Poland is regarded as the stronger team, Poland and Sweden have equal chances of 64% to qualify thanks to the potential third-place route. Slovakia is regarded as one of the weakest teams at the tournament and has a probability of only 39% to advance. Only Hungary in the “group of death” has a lower probability.
Group F: Hungary - Portugal - France - Germany
| Team Rating | Position in group | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | Team | ELO | Off. | Def. | Pos 1 | Pos 2 | Pos 3 | Pos 4 | Next round ▼ |
| 1 | | 2219 | 1.67 | -0.16 | 42% | 30% | 19% | 9% | 80% |
| 2 | | 2152 | 1.79 | -0.14 | 34% | 33% | 22% | 11% | 74% |
| 3 |  | 2033 | 1.71 | -0.30 | 18% | 24% | 32% | 27% | 61% |
| 4 |  | 1893 | 1.20 | -0.79 | 7% | 13% | 27% | 53% | 29% |
This group serves as EURO 2020’s “group of death” as it features the last two world cup winners in France and Germany as well as EURO 2016 champions Portugal who will feature Ronaldo in what will (likely) be his last EUROs. Needless to say, Hungary — the odd one out in the quartet — does not have a big chance of reaching the knockout stages. That is unfortunate given some of the quality their squad brings to the tournament. With an Elo rating of 1893 they would have at least a 60% chance at the knockout stages in any other group, compared to only 29% in this one.
The clashes between the other three will be something to look forward to early in the tournament. France has arguably more player talent than any other team at the tournament, but their qualification campaign has been indifferent. Still, with a probability of 80% to advance, they have the edge over Portugal (74%). The Seleção are blessed with a solid defence (Rúben Dias and José Fonte), one of the most dangerous midfielders (Bruno Fernandes) and a prolific forward (Chrisiano Ronaldo). As for finishing first or second, they will certainly be buoyed by Germany’s travails of late. After a miserable 2018 World Cup campaign, Joachim Low has been overhauling his playing squad with great success during qualifying, finishing their group first before the Dutch. However, their famous 2-1 loss to North Macedonia in the World Cup Qualifiers gave rise to concern. This will be the final tournament of the Joachim Low era, and some are wondering whether the World Cup-winning coach should have handed over the reins to someone else a bit earlier.
Most likely, one of the three powerhouses will be eliminated before the knockout stages, given that it will be hard to boost the goal difference in this tough group and advance as one of the best thirds.
In another blog post (available in Dutch and French), we take a closer look at the odds of Belgium.
