From a 17-year-old Brazilian kid named Pele in 1958 to Kylian Mbappé in 2018, every major international tournament is an opportunity to discover young talents destined for a career at the highest level. The current World Cup will be no exception, so we’ve decided to conduct a short data-driven analysis to list ten players who might reveal themselves to the world during the next four weeks.
Players often get noticed by a wide audience only after scoring goals and providing assists. However, focusing on these two actions in isolation ignores all other actions on the pitch. Instead, our VAEP possession value model can judge players based on all on-the-ball actions they make, both offensively and defensively. Actions that increase the chance of a goal (e.g., a good cross) get a positive value, while actions that reduce the chance of scoring (e.g., a bad pass that leads to a loss of the ball) get a negative value. In the past, we successfully employed these to identify promising young players and minor league talent (see Table 2 in the VAEP paper for proof).
We’ve now used our VAEP ratings to analyze the potential of each player aged 21 or less at the World Cup. Therefore, we’ve looked at their performance in the current season with their domestic club up to the unusual winter break. We considered six of Europe’s top leagues (English Premier League, Italian Serie A, German Bundesliga, Spanish LaLiga, French Ligue 1, Dutch Eredivisie, Belgian Jupiler Pro League), and only included players that have been on the pitch for at least half of the available minutes.
| # | Player | Team | VAEP/90 | Market value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | K. Taylor |  | 0.58 | €14m |
| 2 | J. Musiala |  | 0.52 | €100m |
| 3 | X. Simons | | 0.51 | €18m |
| 4 | J. Frimpong | | 0.46 | €25m |
| 5 | Pedri |  | 0.44 | €100m |
| 6 | G. Martinelli |  | 0.28 | €60m |
| 7 | B. Saka |  | 0.27 | €90m |
| 8 | W. Saliba |  | 0.26 | €50m |
| 9 | N. Williams | | 0.26 | €25m |
| 10 | Y. Moukoko | | 0.25 | €30m |
With the likes of Musiala (Germany), Pedri (Spain) and Saka (England) our list features some names that are already well known among soccer fans, but it also includes a few potentially hidden gems. When reading this post, keep in mind that VAEP only uses on-the-ball event data and thus is naturally biased towards offensive players. This helps explain why our list contains only a couple of defenders.
Top 5: two big names and lots of orange
The highest-rated player is Ajax’s midfielder Kenneth Taylor. He looks to be the heir apparent in the decades-long dynasty of all-around Dutch playmakers, and is poised to continue Ajax’s recent line of excellent young midfielders such as Frenkie De Jong and Ryan Gravenberch. He can play as a defensive midfielder but is also showing good confidence in front of goal, having netted five times already this season. He is considered even more of an assist man, and his overall VAEP/90 rating places him among the top 15 players of any team and age in Europe right now. He is not a starter in the Dutch national team yet, but his form of late could easily convince Louis Van Gaal to exploit this gem, should his team be facing difficulties in building valuable game plays.
Second comes Jamal Musiala: the youngest player ever to play a match for Bayern in the Bundesliga has recently marked the 100th appearance milestone while still being a teenager. He is definitely one of the tournament’s most exciting prospects and earned a start in Germany’s surprising opening match defeat to Japan. Already standing out in the Bundesliga (only three players have a higher rating than him in Germany), he looks ready to continue his quick ascent to the top of soccer.
Two Dutch youngsters follow, making it three out of four at the top of the list. The Oranje will have their chances in this World Cup, but their future looks even brighter. 19-year-old Xavi Simons is one of the most discussed prospects of European soccer. Despite being in just his first year as a regular starter at PSV, he was always one to watch based on his growth at Barcelona and Paris Saint-Germain. The talent is definitely there: his stunning debut season has earned him the call-up despite never having played for the national team.
Full-back Jeremie Frimpong is also having a fantastic time at Leverkusen: he’s taking the right wing by storm, playing either as a right-back or right midfielder, being decisive in both defensive and offensive situations with five goals in this year’s Bundesliga. Thanks to these contributions, our data project him among the five top defenders of the continent: will it be enough to earn the place of veteran Denzel Dumfries?
We close our top five with a player that is already a star in the making: Barcelona’s Pedri. He came out on the scene two years ago and has fastly become one of the world’s best midfielders, earning prizes such as the EURO2020 Young Player of the Tournament and the 2021 Golden Boy award. He represents (together with the even younger Gavi) the next generation of the immense Blaugrana tradition, and combines elegant touch with an aggressive style, making him already a pillar for both Xavi and Luis Enrique. Indeed, if you exclude shots, he is the U21 player with the highest overall VAEP rating. He excels in all the aspects that make a phenomenal midfielder.
These five players had VAEP values way above the rest of the field, so expectations of them can already be pretty high. Musiala and Pedri are already core starters of their teams, whereas for the Dutch there is more uncertainty: it will not be easy for Van Gaal to insert all these exciting prospects, but the potential at his disposal looks huge.
Moving on to… Arsenal + others
Scrolling down the list, we find three Arsenal players, and that should not be too big of a surprise. After years of struggles, Mikel Arteta is bringing back the Gunners to their old winning ways, as they sit on top of the Premier League. Bukayo Saka is the most experienced of the three, having already played with the Three Lions at EURO2020. At only 21, he is a starter in the most valuable team of the tournament and scored two goals in their opening match. For Martinelli and Saliba it will probably be harder to get in the starting lineups, given the strong internal competition in the Brazilian attack and French defense, respectively.
Finally, we find Spain’s winger Nico Williams and Germany’s striker Youssoufa Moukoko, who could both be very interesting substitutes. Moukoko, in particular, has been lethal this season, having almost all his positive contributions coming from (often successful) shots. He has to improve in other aspects of the game, but with Leroy Sané struggling with injuries, Germany might need to consider new options and we are sure he could rise to the occasion.
Honorable mention
Finally, we highlight one other player: England’s Jude Bellingham is one of the best midfielders of the new generation. He is a key player for both his national team and Borussia Dortmund. He finished just outside the top ten because we did not consider Champions League performances, where he has excelled with four goals and a couple of really dominant performances. He had a perfect start scoring the opener in England’s first match against Iran, and if football will finally come home this year, he would certainly be a big part of it.
