Who are the favourites to win the European Football Championship and how might your favourite team perform? The KU Leuven DTAI Sports Analytics Lab executed a statistical simulation to answer these questions. Our simulation takes into account the results in historical games to estimates each team's skill level and predict the odds of each country's performance. The probabilities are based on 20,000 simulations and will be updated after each game.
The first phase of the Championship is a round-robin tournament, in which each team plays every other team in its four-team group. Both the winner and runner-up from each group automatically advance to the knockout stage of the tournament.
The second phase of the Championship consists of three rounds of single-elimination games. The table below shows each team’s estimated strength, its chance of reaching each round of the knockout stage and its chance of winning the European Championship.
The bracket below illustrates the most likely scenario. You can also find out your favourite team's most likely road to the final and its opponents along the way.