Probably a Duel

Appeared in Volume 10/2, May 1997

After a mutual and irreconcilable dispute among Red, Black and Blue, the three parties have agreed to a three-way duel. Each man is provided with a pistol and an unlimited supply of ammunition. Instead of simultaneous volleys, a firing order is to be established and followed until only one survivor remains.

Blue is a 100 per cent marksman, never having missed a bull's-eye in his shooting career. Black is successful two out of three times on average, and you, Red are only a 1/3 marksman. Recognizing the disparate degrees of marksmanship, the seconds have decided that you will be the first and Black second in the firing order.

Your pistol is loaded and cocked. At whom do you fire?

Philip Carter and Ken Russell (eds.)
Classic Puzzles
Sphere Books 1990